ESR 8 - Development of transboundary, long-term flood risk management strategies taking into account uncertain spatial risk patterns and spatial interdependencies

Alessio Ciullo

Alessio Ciullo, home country Italy

Host Institute: Deltares

Contact details:
Tel: +31 6 42008344


Uncertainty characterizes a flood risk system by definition: from forecasting meteorological and hydrological conditions to predicting socio-economic development. Uncertain is the way river-dike interactions take place (e.g. upstream-downstream hydrodynamic interactions) as well as the impact of the expected climate change and socio-economic development. Nevertheless, policy makers are required to implement flood risk management plans over large areas and there is very little knowledge about how the uncertainties in the flood risk system affect decisions.

The present project will develop an exploratory model representative of large-scale flood risk systems with the aim of developing robust and adaptive flood risk management plans. The model will provide a spatially distributed characterisation of flood risk by paying a particular attention on how measures upstream affect flood risk downstream (upstream - downstream interactions). Several sets of strategies will be explored, spanning from structural to non-structural ones and the performance of each management strategy will be assessed with respect to a multiple, heterogeneous set of performance indicators, e.g. costs, economic damage, casualties and risk-transfer. The analysis will focus on the Lower Rhine River and the Po River (Italy) and policy recommendations will be derived for both case studies by placing emphasis on the implications of uncertainty in decision making. Close cooperation is foreseen with ESR4, ESR6, ERS7 and ESR9.