ESR 6

ESR 6 - Development of improved flood risk analysis methods for river deltas including the effects of defence failures on flood risk

Alex Curran

Alex Curran, home country Ireland

Host Institutes: Deltares - Flood Risk Management Department, TU Delft - Civil Engineering Faculty, Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk Section

Contact details:
Email: alex.curran@deltares.nl
Tel: +31 62 7289688

Research

Current flood risk management frameworks are usually deterministic, simplified or in case they are more complex their applicability is limited to small areas. This project, therefore, aims to develop and improve combined probabilistic-deterministic flood risk analysis approaches for large river deltas which take into account flood defence failures, hydrodynamic interdependencies, and flood impacts. The approach will enable a large-scale risk analysis, or a local flood risk analysis taking into account the effects of the larger system. This approach will be applied on the Lower Rhine and Po Rivers. The application will provide insight in the spatial distribution of flood risks and interdependencies between upstream and downstream risks will be investigated, e.g. effect of strengthening of upstream parts on downstream risks. The model will be developed in cooperation with ESR7 (focusing on large-scale inland river networks) and ESR8, (focusing on flood risk management strategies).