ESR 5 - Identification of large-scale flood-risk changes and adaptation strategies
Iuliia Shustikova, home country Ukraine
Host Institute: Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna
Scuola di Ingegneria e Architettura | Dipartimento DICAM - Costruzioni idrauliche
Viale del Risorgimento, 2 - 40136, Bologna
Tel: +39 51 20 9 3357
This project proposes to assess flood-risk changes and tests adaptation strategies over large flood-prone areas by developing modelling tools which incorporate information on Hydrology and Society interactions. These tools will guide the comparison of different adaptation strategies to flood-risk change by explicitly accounting for anthropogenic changes in exposure and vulnerability to floods (e.g., land-use and population dynamics mapped through conventional census data and innovative remotely-sensed data such as distributed nightlight data, anthropogenic land-subsidence) and incorporating the effects of mitigation measures and possible failures of flood defences. Assessing flood risk over large areas under consideration of the interactions among floods, historical, current and future land-uses, population densities, topographic conditions and mitigation measures requires fast modelling schemes. Hydraulic models of different complexity (2D raster-based or coupled 1D-2D) will be merged with GIS-based tools in order to support institutions and public bodies in the definition of optimal large-scale policies for a resilient adaptation to flood-risk changes. This project has links to and will use input from several other ESR projects (ESR3: extreme flood events; ESR6, ESR7: interactions in river systems; ESR13, ESR14: damage modelling, ESR8, ESR11: mitigation strategies).