ESR 4

ESR 4 - Generation of boundary conditions for large-scale flood risk assessment

Dirk Diederen, home country The Netherlands

Host Institute: HR Wallingford

Contact details:
Howbery Park, Wallingford
Oxfordshire, OX10 8BA
United Kingdom
Email: d.diederen@hrwallingford.com
Tel: ++44 (0)1491 822 899

Research

Large-scale flood scenarios with consistent spatial dependencies are needed in the insurance industry and for strategic, large-scale flood risk management. To date, methods that incorporate spatial dependence in a robust manner are only just emerging and these do not currently capture temporal correlations. This project will improve large-scale flood risk analysis by accounting for spatial and temporal correlation in extreme events. It will combine multivariate extreme value modelling with large-scale analysis of dominant patterns in forcing. A boundary condition generator that captures these spatial and temporal correlations will be developed and applied to UK and parts of continental Europe. Spatio-temporal boundary conditions will be generated and used for subsequent flood risk modelling by ESR8 and ESR9.