ESR 2 - Flood change attribution: considering sources and pathways for understanding the past
Miriam Bertola, home country Italy
Host Institute: Technische Universität Wien
Tel: +43 1 58801-22333
Assessment of decadal changes in flood discharges and attribution of the main drivers of change. This is an inverse problem, where methods of systems identification will be used to identify, in an optimal way, the sources and drivers that have led to changes in the flood discharges and consequently flood risk. The methods will be developed by making use of flood data, climate data and catchment data from European catchments. The drivers of change considered are related to climate (changed precipitation intensities, changed circulation patterns, changed sequence of storms), catchment processes (changed snow melt conditions, changed antecedent soil moisture, changed land use and therefore infiltration and storage characteristics), and river channel processes (changed conveyance, changed flood plain storage, construction of hydraulic structures). The system identification method will be developed in cooperation with ESR14.