ESR 14

ESR 14 - Attribution of changes in flood risk with focus on exposure and vulnerability

A Duha Metin

A. Duha Metin, home country Turkey

Host Institute: German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ, Section 5.4 Hydrology

Contact details:
Building C 4, room 2.32
14473 Potsdam
Tel: +49 331 288-28769


While studies on past changes in flood discharges are abundant, there are only a few studies that have investigated changes in damages and risk. My project aims at developing a method to attribute changes in flood damage and risk to different causes and to understand how different drivers have contributed to past flood risk changes in Germany. Based on a variety of information sources, e.g. a large collection of grey literature on past floods in Germany, time series of flood damages for 1950-today will be reconstructed. Using statistical analyses and risk chain modelling tools, I will quantify the contribution of different drivers (land use change, economic growth, implementation of flood defense measures, precaution etc.). My project focuses on changes in exposure and vulnerability, and is closely linked to ESR2 (focus on discharges) and ESR13 (focus on time-varying vulnerability of private households). Since data availability is significantly reduced when investigating damages, I will give emphasis to the reliability of attribution statements. To this end, I will test Bayesian fingerprinting methods for change detection and attribution.