ESR 1

ESR 1 - Development of Future Weather techniques for flood risk assessment

Sonu Khanal

Sonu Khanal, home country Nepal

Host Institute: FutureWater Research and consultancy for a sustainable future of our water resources

Contact details:
Costerweg 1V
6702 AA Wageningen
The Netherlands
Email: s.khanal@futurewater.nl
Tel: +31 317 460 050

Research

Climate change effects on flood risk are typically visualized by analyzing ensembles of GCM simulations driven by future greenhouse gas forcings. However, the visualization power of these condensed scenarios is limited and a strong translation from the climate model world to the flood risk world is needed. This project will apply the concept of Future Weather: high-resolution simulations of weather events put in a future climate context and a high degree of tailoring the analyzed events to increase the realism of visualized climate change impacts for flood risk analysis. Much more realistic flood scenarios can thus be constructed. This approach is particularly suited to explore unprecedented events and situations that are subject to compound occurrence of events, such as the superposition of storm surge and heavy rain or snow melt and heavy rain. The Future Weather concept does not allow a robust return period estimation for these events. Complemented analysis of course-resolution projections needs to give probabilistic information. Depending on the area of interest, a different set of Future Weather techniques may be needed. The developed Future Weather techniques will therefore be validated for three different case-study river basins. This project will explore how these Future Weather scenarios can complement the traditional climate change scenario approach, and possibly contribution of this methodology to adaptation planning programs such as the Dutch Delta Program. Future Weather scenarios developed in this project will be aligned with activities carried out by ESR7.